← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 48% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.65 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 25% | 30% | 3.90 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · SC Freiburg |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Niederlechner · SC Freiburg |
| 46' | 🟨 | Benedikt Höwedes · FC Schalke 04 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Donis Avdijaj · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1984.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1647.12 | 1754.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.23 | 15.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 44.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.39 | 26.43 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |