← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 55% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.81 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 20% | 19% | 4.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.60 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| coach days |
| 156.00 |
| 339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1621.58 | 1501.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.83 | -7.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| league points | 42.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 22.99 | — |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |