← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 42% | 47% | 2.35 | value: +11% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 31% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days |
| 175.00 |
| 66.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1469.95 | 1578.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.79 | -23.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.02 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |