← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 90% | 84% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 10% | 14.60 | value: +52% |
| Darmstadt win | 3% | 5% | 31.00 | value: +63% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Juan Bernat · FC Bayern München |
| 61' | 🟨 | Sandro Sirigu · Darmstadt |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rafinha · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| coach days |
| 309.00 |
| 1617.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1902.43 | 1430.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.50 | 35.36 |
| eye test v1 | 1.44 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 73.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 2.35 | 0.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.51 | -1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.08 | — |
| state index | 1.53 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | -1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |