← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Stark, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 41% | 40% | 2.39 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 31% | 33% | 3.12 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days |
| 1434.00 |
| 1434.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1566.91 | 1610.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.91 | 48.59 |
| eye test v1 | -1.36 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| league points | 42.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.53 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |