← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 39% | 31% | 2.53 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 31% | 38% | 3.12 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Halil Altintop · FC Augsburg |
| 33' | 🟨 | Mërgim Mavraj · Hamburger SV |
| 42' | ⚽ | Halil Altintop · FC Augsburg |
| 44' | 🟨 | Michael Gregoritsch · Hamburger SV |
| 48' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
| 51' | 🟨 | Matthias Ostrzolek · Hamburger SV |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 76' | ⚽ | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Raúl Bobadilla · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 333.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1607.91 | 1632.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.92 | -5.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| league points | 32.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.58 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 25.73 |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |