← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 70% | 66% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.43 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 12% | 17% | 8.22 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Wolfsburg |
| 19' | ⚽ | David Alaba · FC Bayern München |
| 36' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 45' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 66' | ⚽ | Arjen Robben · FC Bayern München |
| 78' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Wolfsburg |
| 78' | 🟥 | Luiz Gustavo · Wolfsburg |
| 80' | ⚽ | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
| 85' | ⚽ | Joshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days |
| 210.00 |
| 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.93 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1538.75 | 1895.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.08 | -19.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 1.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 2.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 33.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 71.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 20.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 2.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.08 |
| state index | -0.07 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |