← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 45% | 41% | 2.16 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.69 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Felix Platte · Darmstadt |
| 25' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · Darmstadt |
| 42' | 🟨 | Patrick Banggaard · Darmstadt |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jérôme Gondorf · Darmstadt |
| 65' | ⚽ | Sven Schipplock · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 1610.00 | 1976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1524.47 | 1668.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.52 | -2.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 21.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.71 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.45 | 25.12 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |