← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 45% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 27% | 28% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | BayArena |
| coach days |
| 58.00 |
| 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1598.04 | 1622.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.88 | 4.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 36.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.02 | 23.67 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |