← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 45% | 45% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.52 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 27% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · SC Freiburg |
| 55' | 🟨 | Roberto Hilbert · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Kevin Volland · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 88' | ⚽ | Pascal Stenzel · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Ignjovski · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leon Bailey · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1970.00 |
| 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1516.77 | 1608.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.57 | -4.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 41.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.02 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |