← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 43% | 43% | 2.29 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 30% | 27% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.66 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcel Tisserand · Ingolstadt |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
| 50' | 🟨 | Niklas Moisander · SV Werder Bremen |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Pascal Groß · Ingolstadt |
| 64' | 🟨 | Lamine Sané · SV Werder Bremen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Max Christiansen · Ingolstadt |
| 78' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Ingolstadt |
| 81' | ⚽ | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
| 87' | ⚽ | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days |
| 161.00 |
| 1421.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1476.89 | 1587.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.29 | 64.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.81 |
| league points | 28.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |