← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 37% | 36% | 2.68 | fair |
| Hertha win | 34% | 36% | 2.91 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 59' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 73' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Wolfsburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Borja Mayoral · Wolfsburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Allan · Hertha |
| 89' | 🟨 | Per Ciljan Skjelbred · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alexander Esswein · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yannick Gerhardt · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days |
| 811.00 |
| 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1551.17 | 1546.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.54 | -4.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 43.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |