← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 73% | 65% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 22% | 5.62 | value: +24% |
| Darmstadt win | 9% | 13% | 10.48 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Filip Kostić · Hamburger SV |
| 51' | ⚽ | Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt |
| 53' | ⚽ | Felix Platte · Darmstadt |
| 57' | 🟨 | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 57' | 🟨 | Wilson Kamavuaka · Darmstadt |
| 75' | 🟨 | Patrick Banggaard · Darmstadt |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mërgim Mavraj · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Fabian Holland · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 233.00 | 1603.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1648.12 | 1509.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.09 | -11.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 33.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.58 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 28.55 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |