← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 53% | 61% | 1.84 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.53 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 19% | 17% | 5.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 417.00 | 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 1.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1635.16 | 1619.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.44 | -15.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| league points | 38.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 27.48 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |