← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 84% | 85% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 8.61 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 5% | 4% | 19.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Bojan Krkić · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 16' | ⚽ | Arjen Robben · FC Bayern München |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Brosinski · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Rafinha · FC Bayern München |
| 73' | ⚽ | Thiago Alcântara · FC Bayern München |
| 89' | 🟨 | Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 295.00 | 795.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| elo | 2029.29 | 1639.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.61 | -27.93 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | — |
| league points | 69.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.74 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 25.49 |
| state index | 1.89 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.33 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |