← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 41% | 38% | 2.42 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 33% | 28% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 35% | 3.65 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · 1. FC Köln |
| 58' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bittencourt · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kerem Demirbay · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1420.00 | 445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1686.96 | 1781.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.31 | 38.40 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 40.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.54 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.09 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |