← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 53% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 22% | 18% | 4.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Mario Vrančić · Darmstadt |
| 39' | 🟨 | Sandro Sirigu · Darmstadt |
| 54' | 🟨 | Hamit Altintop · Darmstadt |
| 63' | 🟨 | Fabian Holland · Darmstadt |
| 69' | 🟨 | Thilo Kehrer · FC Schalke 04 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Max Meyer · FC Schalke 04 |
| 75' | ⚽ | Coke · FC Schalke 04 |
| 81' | 🟥 | Thilo Kehrer · FC Schalke 04 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Patrick Banggaard · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Esser · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jérôme Gondorf · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 26 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 24 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 1597.00 | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1494.60 | 1731.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.69 | -1.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 15.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.01 | 25.37 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |