← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 48% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 24% | 23% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · Wolfsburg |
| 13' | 🟨 | Markus Suttner · Ingolstadt |
| 36' | 🟨 | Robin Knoche · Wolfsburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Marvin Matip · Ingolstadt |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Markus Suttner · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Yunus Malli · Wolfsburg |
| 80' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 196.00 | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1658.77 | 1603.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.99 | 29.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| league points | 30.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.63 | 27.72 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |