← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 46% | 49% | 2.14 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.38 | fair |
| Hertha win | 25% | 23% | 3.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Maximilian Mittelstädt · Hertha |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | John Brooks · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Alexander Esswein · Hertha |
| 71' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Brooks · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| coach days | 788.00 | 804.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1629.82 | 1683.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.91 | -10.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 29.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.49 | 28.28 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |