← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 36% | 31% | 2.73 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 34% | 35% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.28 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Martin Hinteregger · FC Augsburg |
| 16' | 🟨 | Paul Verhaegh · FC Augsburg |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Verhaegh · FC Augsburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Matthias Lehmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Philipp Max · 1. FC Köln |
| 80' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 89' | 🟥 | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lukas Klünter · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 318.00 | 1414.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1608.87 | 1697.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.80 | -3.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.54 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.64 | 26.29 |
| state index | -0.88 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |