← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 67% | 66% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.44 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 11% | 14% | 8.65 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Pascal Groß · Ingolstadt |
| 33' | ⚽ | Mario Vrančić · Darmstadt |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Mario Vrančić · Darmstadt |
| 64' | 🟨 | Antonio Čolak · Darmstadt |
| 68' | ⚽ | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
| 72' | ⚽ | Markus Suttner · Ingolstadt |
| 75' | 🟨 | Markus Suttner · Ingolstadt |
| 87' | 🟥 | Romain Brégerie · Ingolstadt |
| 87' | 🟨 | Antonio Čolak · Darmstadt |
| 87' | 🟥 | Antonio Čolak · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 148.00 | 1590.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1597.73 | 1500.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.40 | -14.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| league points | 25.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.45 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 28.52 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |