← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 53% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.51 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 19% | 21% | 5.15 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | John Brooks · Hertha |
| 37' | ⚽ | Valentin Stocker · Hertha |
| 42' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Vladimír Darida · Hertha |
| 82' | 🟨 | Christoph Janker · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 798.00 | 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1673.50 | 1619.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.97 | -26.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| league points | 40.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 27.82 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |