← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 47% | 44% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 26% | 29% | 3.76 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 6' | ⚽ | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 23' | ⚽ | Leon Goretzka · FC Schalke 04 |
| 48' | ⚽ | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Matija Nastasić · FC Schalke 04 |
| 77' | ⚽ | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days | 311.00 | 189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1727.31 | 1670.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.81 | 11.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 34.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.54 | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |