← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 52% | 50% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.87 | value: +4% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 23% | 24% | 4.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 58' | 🟨 | Wendell · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 88' | 🟥 | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days |
| 281.00 |
| 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1618.96 | 1610.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.15 | -15.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| league points | 55.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 23.28 | 23.02 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |