← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 37% | 49% | 2.62 | value: +27% |
| Hamburger SV win | 34% | 31% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 32' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rudy · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 36' | 🟨 | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 40' | 🟨 | Filip Kostić · Hamburger SV |
| 51' | 🟨 | Walace · Hamburger SV |
| 62' | 🟨 | Steven Zuber · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kyriakos Papadopoulos · Hamburger SV |
| 75' | ⚽ | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 82' | 🟨 | Dennis Diekmeier · Hamburger SV |
| 82' | 🟨 | Benjamin Hübner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days |
| 219.00 |
| 432.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1519.24 | 1658.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.66 | 46.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.46 | 0.80 |
| league points | 30.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |