← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 37% | 41% | 2.68 | value: +10% |
| SC Freiburg win | 34% | 31% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 59' | 🟨 | André Ramalho · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Danny Latza · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1955.00 |
| 781.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1519.20 | 1518.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.40 | -44.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 38.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |