← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 37% | 31% | 2.64 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 34% | 29% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 40% | 3.36 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1407.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1708.48 | 1744.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.89 | -12.53 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.54 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.92 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.02 | 24.87 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |