← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 67% | 69% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.91 | fair |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 13% | 16% | 7.72 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 281.00 | 647.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| elo | 2027.26 | 1880.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.30 | 1.57 |
| eye test v1 | 1.53 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 65.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 2.41 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.70 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 25.25 |
| state index | 2.09 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.42 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |