← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 49% | 52% | 2.01 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 24% | 20% | 4.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 37' | ⚽ | Zlatko Junuzović · SV Werder Bremen |
| 43' | ⚽ | Fin Bartels · SV Werder Bremen |
| 48' | ⚽ | Mijat Gaćinović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ante Rebić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fin Bartels · SV Werder Bremen |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Marco Fabián · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marco Fabián · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 402.00 | 1406.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1639.72 | 1704.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.23 | 68.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.77 |
| league points | 37.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.85 | 27.65 |
| state index | -0.24 | 1.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |