← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gunter Perl, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 51% | 55% | 1.92 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.47 | fair |
| Hertha win | 21% | 18% | 4.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | László Bénes · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jordan Torunarigha · Hertha |
| 89' | 🟨 | Thorgan Hazard · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 125.00 | 794.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1737.73 | 1680.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.59 | -13.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| league points | 33.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 27.61 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |