← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Wed, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 37% | 36% | 2.67 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 33% | 35% | 2.97 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
| 35' | ⚽ | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Florent Hadergjonaj · Ingolstadt |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jan Morávek · FC Augsburg |
| 67' | ⚽ | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
| 75' | 🟨 | Roger · Ingolstadt |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Verhaegh · FC Augsburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Martin Hinteregger · FC Augsburg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Halil Altintop · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 308.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1632.10 | 1584.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.93 | -9.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| league points | 29.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 27.89 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |