← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 40% | 34% | 2.45 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 33% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 35% | 3.58 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Theodor Gebre Selassie · SV Werder Bremen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Leon Goretzka · FC Schalke 04 |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ralf Fährmann · FC Schalke 04 |
| 80' | ⚽ | Maximilian Eggestein · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1403.00 | 307.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1686.93 | 1744.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 64.63 | 24.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 25.69 |
| state index | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |