← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 62% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.56 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 16% | 20% | 6.05 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 64' | 🟨 | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 428.00 | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1766.69 | 2042.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.52 | 18.84 |
| eye test v1 | 1.45 | 1.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 2.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | — |
| league points | 48.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 72.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.70 | 2.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 27.71 |
| state index | 1.44 | 2.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 1.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |