← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 76% | 79% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.49 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 9% | 6% | 11.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| coach days |
| 643.00 |
| 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1750.93 | 1524.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.41 | 32.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.95 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.39 |
| league points | 47.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.16 | — |
| state index | 1.12 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |