← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 48% | 60% | 2.04 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.59 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 25% | 18% | 3.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · Wolfsburg |
| 40' | ⚽ | Karim Bellarabi · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kevin Volland · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 80' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Charles Aránguiz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 83' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 89' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 32.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1729.65 | 1680.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.97 | 0.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| league points | 31.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.03 | 26.36 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |