← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 41% | 47% | 2.39 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.28 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 29% | 27% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Romain Brégerie · Ingolstadt |
| 33' | 🟨 | Leon Balogun · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marvin Matip · Ingolstadt |
| 65' | 🟨 | Florent Hadergjonaj · Ingolstadt |
| 68' | 🟨 | André Ramalho · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Marvin Matip · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 73' | ⚽ | Florent Hadergjonaj · Ingolstadt |
| 76' | 🟨 | Danny Latza · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marcel Tisserand · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Hansen · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 25 | Fouls | 26 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 141.00 | 775.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1574.05 | 1657.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.35 | -24.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 19.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 25.80 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |