← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 46% | 48% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 25% | 25% | 3.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Nicolai Müller · Hamburger SV |
| 25' | ⚽ | Miloš Jojić · 1. FC Köln |
| 34' | 🟨 | Simon Zoller · 1. FC Köln |
| 37' | 🟨 | Miloš Jojić · 1. FC Köln |
| 60' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 67' | 🟨 | Walace · Hamburger SV |
| 77' | 🟨 | Serhou Guirassy · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 212.00 | 1400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1638.07 | 1712.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.81 | -8.50 |
| eye test v1 | -1.09 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.60 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.41 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.58 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.74 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 27.50 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |