← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Stark, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 42% | 37% | 2.32 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 30% | 33% | 3.28 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.51 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · SC Freiburg |
| 45' | ⚽ | Thomas Delaney · SV Werder Bremen |
| 47' | ⚽ | Thomas Delaney · SV Werder Bremen |
| 64' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 71' | ⚽ | Fin Bartels · SV Werder Bremen |
| 77' | ⚽ | Vincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Julian Schuster · SC Freiburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luca Caldirola · SV Werder Bremen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Thomas Delaney · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1948.00 |
| 1400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1525.72 | 1542.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.09 | 65.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 35.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | -1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |