← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 87% | 80% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 17% | 10.51 | value: +82% |
| FC Augsburg win | 4% | 3% | 26.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 274.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| elo | 2040.05 | 1634.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.38 | -15.02 |
| eye test v1 | 1.86 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.65 |
| league points | 62.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.84 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.53 | 25.54 |
| state index | 2.35 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.70 | -1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |