← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 37% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
| Hertha win | 33% | 31% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.28 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Peter Pekarík · Hertha |
| 38' | 🟨 | Maximilian Mittelstädt · Hertha |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 42' | 🟨 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 58' | 🟨 | Maximilian Mittelstädt · Hertha |
| 58' | 🟥 | Maximilian Mittelstädt · Hertha |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 76' | ⚽ | Niklas Süle · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 82' | 🟨 | Per Ciljan Skjelbred · Hertha |
| 86' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 28 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 789.00 | 424.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1695.41 | 1751.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.26 | 22.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 40.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 26.13 |
| state index | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |