← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 72% | 55% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 33% | 5.63 | value: +87% ⚠ |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 11% | 12% | 9.00 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Xabi Alonso · FC Bayern München |
| 63' | ⚽ | Thomas Müller · FC Bayern München |
| 87' | 🟨 | Javi Martínez · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 108.00 | 261.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1742.82 | 2035.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.09 | 8.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 1.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| league points | 32.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 72.00 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 2.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.80 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 27.85 |
| state index | 0.51 | 2.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 1.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |