← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Stark, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 38% | 37% | 2.57 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 33% | 36% | 2.96 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 761.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1667.57 | 1732.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.28 | -1.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 29.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 24.90 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |