← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 60% | 63% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.01 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 15% | 14% | 6.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · Darmstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Robin Knoche · Wolfsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt |
| 74' | 🟨 | Patrick Banggaard · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days |
| 168.00 |
| 1568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1551.12 | 1406.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.13 | 7.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 26.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |