← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 39% | 43% | 2.51 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.14 | fair |
| Hertha win | 30% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 32' | 🟨 | Genki Haraguchi · Hertha |
| 35' | ⚽ | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 37' | ⚽ | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 41' | 🟨 | Sebastian Langkamp · Hertha |
| 48' | 🟨 | Dominic Maroh · 1. FC Köln |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 52' | 🟨 | Matthias Lehmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 63' | ⚽ | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 69' | ⚽ | John Brooks · Hertha |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sami Allagui · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 1386.00 | 776.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1699.27 | 1708.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.67 | 9.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| league points | 34.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 27.80 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |