← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 43% | 43% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.28 | value: +11% |
| Hamburger SV win | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 68' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
| 83' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 5 |
| 1 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 24 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 382.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 2.20 |
| 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1523.35 | 1512.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -61.09 | 46.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.45 |
| league points | 35.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.98 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |