← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 40% | 42% | 2.45 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 30% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Marwin Hitz · FC Augsburg |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Niederlechner · SC Freiburg |
| 33' | 🟨 | Christian Günter · SC Freiburg |
| 38' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Stafylidis · FC Augsburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Ignjovski · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 290.00 | 1934.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1635.55 | 1670.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.40 | 11.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| league points | 28.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.54 | 25.79 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |