← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 75% | 78% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.87 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 8% | 10% | 11.70 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Borussia Dortmund |
| 35' | 🟨 | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 54' | 🟨 | Florent Hadergjonaj · Ingolstadt |
| 81' | 🟨 | Markus Suttner · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Schmelzer · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 23 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 625.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1875.20 | 1576.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.49 | 1.78 |
| eye test v1 | 1.63 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| league points | 43.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.74 | 27.19 |
| state index | 1.47 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |