← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 57% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 17% | 18% | 5.76 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days | 284.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1719.50 | 1646.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.46 | -8.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.82 | 25.78 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |