← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 37% | 48% | 2.64 | value: +27% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 32% | 27% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 28' | 🟨 | Paweł Olkowski · 1. FC Köln |
| 37' | 🟨 | Markus Suttner · Ingolstadt |
| 38' | 🟨 | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
| 42' | ⚽ | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 60' | ⚽ | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 61' | 🟨 | Romain Brégerie · Ingolstadt |
| 69' | ⚽ | Romain Brégerie · Ingolstadt |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthias Lehmann · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 119.00 | 1379.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1574.41 | 1701.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.50 | -22.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 18.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.54 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 27.16 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |