← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 52% | 61% | 1.88 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.72 | fair |
| Hertha win | 22% | 13% | 4.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 769.00 | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1694.54 | 1888.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.02 | 15.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | 1.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 37.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 10.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 28.14 | 25.82 |
| state index | 0.42 | 1.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |